Sorry, been awhile since I've updated.
Yesterday I had my biggest loss as of yet. -675 or so. Considering I went 2-4 at 100/110s and 0-2 in 200s, it's not really a huge variance loss, and I'll certainly hit a lot worse than that as time goes on. I didn't tilt at all though either, so that's a good thing. A couple of beats here and there, but mostly just ugly situations brought on by opponent's ranges versus my hands and a bunch of ugly turns and rivers. This stuff happens though.
Today I felt I was experiencing the same variance, though I went 5-1 in 100s and 110s. When I hit a heater I should really be doing good. I'm about 66% in the 110s so far, but have only played a little more than 50. Obviously not a big enough sample size.
The main thing that is frustrating me, at least tonight, is Heads Up League. I lost 2-0 again to another player I should have beaten. Don't get me wrong, these guys aren't like horrible or anything, they are other 2+2ers, but they play a lower buyin than me and I should be more advanced and enjoy some sort of an edge over them. I've made some bad plays, been put in some tough spots and hit a bad part of variance in these. That's what I attribute it to. I can tell when I am outplayed. I am rarely wrong in judging that part. I can tell when variance is bad, I am rarely wrong in that as well mostly because statistically I have built up confidence in knowing what is variance and what is tilt. That and game experience.
So anyways, I am 0-2 in the HUL, 0-4 in the individual games, meaning I have to win my next 3 best of 3 matches, one of which will be played against Aaron Been who is in my bracket. If I manage to do that it will be on the good side of variance, as I am nowhere near a favorite to win 3 best of 3s in a row vs 2 players I might have a little edge over and Aaron Been who has an edge over me.
I'll post some hands over the next few days, regardless of how I run.
I can feel myself nearing a breaking out point where I'm making a lot of money. My goal for the last few months has been to reach 10k by the time I'm done working with my business this year, end of September basically. I plan to reach that goal still, but I feel I can surpass it, almost that I should.
The main things that are holding me back as of now, not that I'm struggling or anything, I've done very well in all sets of 100 for the last 500 or so games (basically since I moved out of the lower games) is playing too few games per day. In order to achieve a higher rate of games I will have to organize the things that keep me away from playing as well as increase my efficiency online. I also have another thing that will be helping me play more games in the upcoming week (hopefully), more on that another day.
That's all for now, I'll be trying to play a lot more in the next week (though it's gonna be a busy week) and post a lot more too.
** My buddy took like 400th out of 4k+ people in that 20k FR for me today while I was out, for a whopping 12 bucks. I didn't realize how bad this thing paid out, so from now on we only are going to do the sats for the Supernova 50k FR, and play in that. 800 people and top 130 or so pay out, so that's a FR worth playing.
Bankroll $3,875.33
Saturday, June 23, 2007
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